Snooker World Championship - Second Round previews @ Friday April 25

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BY JOE ASHDOWN
joe.ashdown@oddspreview.com

John Higgins (Sco) v Ryan Day (Wal)

At the time of going to press, this second round match had already begun and at the completion of the first session, defending champion Higgins took a 5-3 into Friday afternoon’s second session. While Higgins will be pleased to hold a lead overnight, Day will be content with the score given that Higgins led 4-0 at the mid-session interval.

I felt Higgins could become the latest of many defending champions to be struck down when defending their world crown ahead of his first round match against Matthew Stevens. But on the evidence of that performance and also on what I have seen in this match so far, I feel Higgins has a very good chance of bucking the trend. He looks very focused and it would appear that he has built his whole season around making a successful defence of his title.

A World Championship victory for Higgins this year would be his third and a triple crown in this event is seen as the benchmark of greatness on the green baize, putting Higgins in an elite club alongside Davis, Hendry and Reardon. The Wizard of Wishaw will be aware that at the age of 32, and with a plethora of young talent stepping off snooker’s production line he will not have many more opportunities to win the holy grail of his sport and so if he is to be remembered as an all-time great, he has to take his chances while he can.

I was impressed with Higgins in his first round victory over Matthew Stevens. Higgins I felt prepared well for the match and was acutely aware of what a dangerous threat Stevens could pose, given that he had never previously been knocked out in round one at The Crucible in ten visits. That brought the best out in Higgins and I was particularly impressed with how Higgins responded when Stevens threatened to get back in the match when winning the first three frames of the second session. While Stevens was certainly short of his very best form and did not take full advantage of his opportunities, he did not play badly and Higgins’ break building and match play was the difference.

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Both of those facets I feel will prove too much for Ryan Day. The young Welshman’s time is coming and he certainly will win a world ranking title within the next year or two. But I felt he laboured against Michael Judge in the last round and never really found full fluency. If Day is to really stand a chance of winning this match, he needs to be consistently making scores of 50 and 60 and putting frames out of reach in one visit. Up to now, he has been getting among the balls but breaking down just when threatening to establish an advantage.

Higgins has been round course and distance before and having successfully negotiated a Bechers Brook of a first obstacle, he will sense that he is cueing well enough to win this tournament again. With each passing round he stays in, he will be one player everyone else, O’ Sullivan included will be hoping had been sent packing. His greater match toughness and experience in these matches will prove too strong for a talented but still raw around the edges opponent.

Prediction: Higgins 13-9 Day

Ding Junhui (Chn) v Stephen Hendry (Sco)

This match on paper looks to be the highlight of the second round pairings as the game’s next great talent faces up to an opponent who has marked himself down in history as the most successful player ever to pick up a cue.

Both players enjoyed sensational deciding frame victories in the first round in what have been arguably the best two matches in the tournament to date.

I was very impressed with Ding in his victory over Marco Fu. What I was particularly impressed by was Ding’s battling qualities. It has been felt that ever since his meltdown in last season’s Masters final to Ronnie O’ Sullivan that Ding can be very fragile when things are not running his way and having let slip a 5-1 lead and seeing Marco Fu rattle off six out of seven frames to lead 7-6, it was a real test of Ding’s mettle. Ding made his doubters consume a huge slice of humble pie though by potting well under pressure, not letting any setbacks get to him and playing some excellent safety shots to help set up his victory chances.

Likewise, Stephen Hendry has much to be proud of in achieving a comeback victory against Mark Allen, having trailed 6-3 after the first session. Allen has been a bogey player to Hendry previously but Hendry showed glimpses of his mid 90s heyday by just getting his head down and reeling off frames and then closing out the match with one visit to the table. There was an evident steeliness in Hendry’s mannerisms around the table, a steeliness that suggests to me that he is really up for another crack at winning the world crown.

Mark Allen will look back on the match and feel that his shot selection and bad fortune contributed to his loss, but unquestionably the biggest determining factor was Hendry’s tremendous competitive spirit. Keen observers of the game feel Hendry’s chances of winning ranking titles have gone but this only serves to make him determined to prove everybody wrong. Hendry has said for a while that he has been cueing well on the practice table but not quite transferred this on to the match table. In familiar surroundings and with his competitive spirit remaining unquenchable, there is a school of thought that says this is the time that the transfer happens.

Of all the second round matches, this is the hardest match to call because it really depends on how well the two players play over three sessions of snooker. Ding showed great resolve in seeing off a dangerous opponent in Fu in round one but his temperament is certain to be tested again by playing a legend of the game at his spiritual home. Hendry showed excellent focus and solid break building in closing out the match against Mark Allen, but how consistently can retain that level of fluency over three sessions? Against Allen, it was only evident for one session of play.

This is toss the coin time. Heads says Hendry will thrive on an electric atmosphere and his competitive juices will carry him through to the last eight again. Tails says Ding’s greater rhythm once he is among the balls and his high quality safety play will prove too much for a stoic Hendry. Heads represents the romantic ideal, tails will prove to be the ultimate reality. Ding through, but it will go to the wire. Make sure you do not miss it.

Prediction: Junhui 13-12 Hendry

Ronnie O’ Sullivan (Eng) v Mark Williams (Wal)

Rewind five years and this match would have been most people’s idea of the dream final. It is a mark of how far the Welsh left hander’s game has fallen in that time that this match attracts reasonably small fanfare this time around.

That said, Williams showed signs in the first session against Mark Davis that he may be returning to something like his best form. This statement has to be tempered with some perspective, however, as Davis was clearly one of the weakest players in the first round draw and so Williams should have expected to beat him with the ease that he did. Williams will not have been pleased with how error strewn his game was in closing out the match and that underlines why Williams has underperformed in recent seasons.

Against O’ Sullivan, Williams needs to get under O’ Sullivan’s skin right from the start and cannot afford any extended lulls in the match. O’ Sullivan was hardly at his sparkling best in his first round win over 17 year old opponent Liu Chuang but he ended up coasting through by winning five out of six frames played in the second session. A gentle workout while playing in second gear will suit O’ Sullivan just fine and he will be heartened by the fact that one player who would have stifled his play in his half of the draw, Ken Doherty, has already gone home.

The Rocket has not had a vintage season by any means as he has won only one tournament, but he will be pleased by how he has found more solidity in his play, being able to win sessions and matches even when he has not been playing fluently. That is a very important attribute to have to hand when playing five rounds of tournament snooker in little over a fortnight in order to win the competition. O’ Sullivan is also more adept these days in his shot selection, sometimes passing up possible pots and opting for safety play in order to get ahead in the long run.

I felt before the tournament that this year presented O’ Sullivan with a fantastic opportunity to win his third world crown as the draw had been pretty kind to him. I stand by that statement and victory this match will surely be followed by another in the last eight. His greatest challenge could come in the semis with one of Higgins, Junhui or Hendry surely being in opposition. Each would pose a different kind of test, but for now I see the Chigwell potter powering through round two with something to spare.

Williams’ supporters should take heart though, I think next season his renaissance could come to fruition if he keeps putting in the hours on the practice table.

Prediction: O’ Sullivan 13-8 Williams

Liang Wenbo (Chn) v Joe Swail (Nir)

Possibly the greatest shock of the first round saw world number 53 Wenbo defeat 1997 champion Ken Doherty 10-5. This scoreline was very flattering, to Doherty! The Dubliner is always vulnerable in the first round of tournaments as he takes time to get into the groove and his young Chinese opponent made Doherty pay for poor safety play and not clearing up when amongst the balls in frame winning positions.

This soothsayer has to confess that he made the prediction of 10-3 to Doherty for that encounter blindly given that he had not previously seen Wenbo play in competitive action. On the strength of what I witnessed on Wednesday night, I feel Wenbo has a very bright future in the game. In the first session, Wenbo hit six breaks of 50 or more. If a player is able to make scores with such regularity, they will win nearly all sessions of snooker they participate in. Wenbo showed great composure and sank some excellent pots but did not lose control when he had mistakes.

The danger Wenbo now faces is that having defeated such a tough match player in Doherty with something to spare, he will be expected to do the same to Ulsterman Swail. This is where Wenbo has to be careful and not find himself stuck on cloud nine for too long. Swail is ranked higher than Wenbo in the world rankings and he has been to two semi-finals at this venue. He also belongs to the same club as Wenbo, the club of members who have defeated Doherty in an opening round here.

Swail enjoyed an easy victory in the first round against arguably the poorest of the seeded players in this year’s draw, Stephen Lee. That victory will stand Swail in good stead as he won easily without playing particularly well himself or having to break into a sweat. Having negotiated the first round and seen Doherty go out, Swail will feel that once again his nous over longer matches provides a platform for him to at least make the quarter finals.

Much depends on Wenbo’s ability to maintain his level of performance against Ken Doherty. John Higgins practised with the Chinese man earlier in the week and remarked that Doherty would have his hands full against him. He was proven correct and if Wenbo produces a similar number of high breaks in this match then he should have enough to defeat Swail.

But Swail has been round the block here before and Wenbo suddenly goes from being an outsider who nobody had given a second glance to being a player who has landed in a good part of the draw and is now favourite in many people’s eyes to win. Young players can struggle for consistency and this is also Wenbo’s first match played over three sessions.

Purely because of his experience and Wenbo possibly finding it hard to hit the heights he found against Doherty, I predict the man from Belfast shaving this contest.

Prediction: Wenbo 10-13 Swail

Shaun Murphy (Eng) v Allister Carter (Eng)

This pairing has perhaps not attracted a great number of plaudits as it does not capture the imagination in the way of Ding against Hendry, or Maguire against Robertson. Yet, personally I think this potentially could be a really engrossing contest between two players whose styles contrast somewhat.

2005 winner Murphy eased through his first round match against Dave Harold. Murphy bludgeoned his opponent with aggressive snooker and while some viewers will have noticed the shiny bling on his expensive waistcoat and trousers, ultimately the greatest shine came from Murphy’s performance. Murphy gave a consummate first round performance by potting his way to victory yet still keeping plenty back for his future matches.

Playing Dave Harold is one thing of course and now Murphy’s first real test of the tournament comes in the shape of Allister Carter. Essex man Carter won a humdinger of a first round encounter against Barry Hawkins, which ended up running into a third session due to some long exchanges of tactical play. While that match did not set pulses racing in the same way as Hendry’s victory over Allen, or Ding’s win over Fu, it was quite a gripping contest which Carter very nearly threw away after seemingly having the match sewn up at 9-6 in front.

These two players opposed each other in the first round of the Masters at Wembley back in January and on that occasion Shaun Murphy prevailed, after Carter had led at the mid-session interval. Murphy comes into this match in the more fluent potting form and the sheer aggression and accuracy of Murphy’s game is the big problem for Carter to deal with.

Carter should not be written off though and it should be remembered that at this stage of the competition twelve months ago, he expunged Stephen Hendry from the tournament by a comprehensive 13-6 margin. He can be a hard man to shake off when he gets among the balls and he also has a very smart safety game which will offer a stark contrast to Murphy’s all out attacking philosophy.

If Carter is to upset the applecart then he will need to knock Murphy out of his rhythm, so I would expect him to try and slow Murphy down and perhaps encourage him to take on a few hopeful tempters in the early stages of frames. It is a high risk strategy though and on the strength of Murphy’s first round play, I doubt he will be bitter after the match and I strongly fancy him to get Carter.

Prediction: Murphy 13-9 Carter

Peter Ebdon (Eng) v Mark King (Eng)

This match was the first of the second round matches to get underway on Thursday afternoon and the end of the first session saw 2002 champion Ebdon establish a 5-3 lead over Mark Selby’s first round conqueror Mark King, after King had led 3-2 at one stage.

Mark King’s first round victory over Mark Selby was an excellent achievement for him and well deserved too. King had been very unfortunate to trail 5-4 after the first session to the Jester from Leicester, who put up a surprisingly subdued performance given how consistently strong he has been all season. But King did not allow himself to become disheartened and winning the first four frames in the second session proved to be the catalyst in his victory.

Peter Ebdon’s comeback victory against Jamie Cope was a fine achievement too. Many keen watchers of the game felt Cope’s outrageous potting prowess would prove too much for Ebdon, who is now entering the autumn of his decorated career. And when Cope led Ebdon 5-4 after the first session and extended that lead in the early stages of the second, Ebdon appeared to be staring down the barrel.

But once again, Ebdon showed he is a force to be reckoned with by coming back to lead 9-8 and then after having lost a chance to seal the match in the eighteenth frame, kept his nerve well by clinching the decider after Cope had drawn first blood and established a healthy points cushion. In many ways, this ranks among Ebdon’s best wins at The Crucible, given the precocious talent of his defeated opponent.

This match is not necessarily one for the snooker purist to enjoy but it certainly will not be short on determination or effort. King showed the heart of a lion in the way he got himself pumped up against Selby and there is no question that on his day, he can provide a stiff test to anyone who is struggling to find their fluency. But Ebdon thrives on such contests and as has been stated previously, really relishes the challenge of playing long matches at The Crucible. As Ebdon gets older, this tournament becomes more and more the absolute focus of his season.

What decides this match is which player has more left in the tank after their Herculean efforts in the last round. Ebdon had to dig very deep to overcome Jamie Cope but he has had four days to recover. King has just a couple of days to get back down to Earth having put absolutely everything into beating many people’s tip for the tournament.

Ebdon establishing an early lead could be crucial in this encounter. Generally he is a good frontrunner and he will know that the first session could very easily have swung 5-3 in his opponent’s favour. Ebdon will be buoyed by his victory against Cope and he showed enough in both his break building and safety play as that match wore on that suggests to me that he will have an extended stay in this tournament, while I expect three sessions of snooker to take its toll on King so soon after his heroics against Selby.

Prediction: Ebdon 13-9 King

Stephen Maguire (Sco) v Neil Robertson (Aus)

Expect plenty of high octane action in this match and plenty of bruised snooker balls as two of the game’s great potting talents draw battle lines against each other.

Stephen Maguire truly does look on fire again after a couple of seasons in the doldrums and he oozed confidence in his first round annihilation of hapless Anthony Hamilton. Hamilton put up less resistance than a chocolate fireguard, it is true, but Maguire showed the right mentality in really digging in the boot in when he had established complete control of the match.

Neil Robertson has not had a good season to follow on from his breakthrough 2006/07 campaign. But he showed positive signs in his opening victory against the ever stubborn Nigel Bond. Robertson showed some fluent break building in the early part of the match and although he still looked below his very best level of play, the signs are ominous that he is hitting form at the right time of the season.

The nature of the way these two players play mean two things. First of all, eight frames of snooker a session will fly by. There will be no danger of these two being asked to vacate the table with a frame left to play as they do like to get on with things. Secondly, both players will have peaks and troughs during the match as neither player is going to be capable of maintaining a devastating level of potting for three sessions of play. This of course means that whoever sustains their fluency for the longest will prevail.

On all known form this season, it really is hard to argue against Maguire winning this match. He already has two ranking titles to his name this season and also reached another final. But Robertson is a very good player in his own right and has buckets of that great Australian trait, ticker. A tough match of this kind at such an early stage of the tournament will suit him fine and could well bring the best out of him.

It is to be hoped that nobody establishes a huge early lead in this encounter as that could prevent this match from becoming a classic that lasts the distance. I had a hunch before the tournament that Robertson would enjoy a World Championship to remember and remind people just how much of a talent he is. I am going to back that hunch and call him to edge past Maguire, who is currently playing some fantastic snooker.

Prediction: Maguire 11-13 Robertson

Stuart Bingham (Eng) v Joe Perry (Eng)

The last match, and if we are being brutally honest, probably the least as well. Both players defeated seeded opponents in the first round but neither of these victories were unexpected.

Stuart Bingham was responsible for ensuring that Steve Davis’ stint in the BBC studio started much sooner than he would have hoped, although Davis showed incredible resilience to fight his way back from 8-3 behind to level at 8 apiece before Bingham took the two frames he needed to carry him over the finishing line. But for spurning some great opportunities by missing some routine balls, The Nugget could have beaten Bingham. The man from Basildon will be punished here if he leaves as many chances this time around.

Joe Perry defeated 2006 champion Graeme Dott in the first round 10-7 and Perry showed good composure in seeing out the match despite of Dott’s very best efforts to push him all the way. Perry’s greater confidence which has stemmed from him having a good season which leaves him on the verge of returning to snooker’s top 16 was the significant factor in carrying him through against his out of sorts opponent.

Both players showed that they have potential to knock in big breaks in the previous round and Perry’s 132 against Dott is currently the surprisingly modest highest break recorded in the tournament to date. Both players also have the tactical nous to help them in safety exchanges and so I expect there to be passages of play throughout the match that switch between the two types of play.

Perry will look around and see that other players in and around the fag end of the provisional top 16 for next season have crashed and burnt already and so a win in this match will all but guarantee his place in the elite next season and with it a season free of travelling to North Wales for qualifiers in front three men and their crisp wrappers. I feel that Bingham will have to up his game significantly from the first round if he is to trouble Perry here, not least if he keeps presenting him with chances.

Prediction: Bingham 8-13 Perry