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Rocket to win third World title as launch pad for future domination @ Sunday 4 May 2008, 05:52 PM

BY JOE ASHDOWN
joe.ashdown@oddspreview.com

Over the past fortnight, there can be no doubt that the World Championship final has the two rightful competitors contesting it.

Ronnie O’ Sullivan and Ali Carter have played the best snooker on the most consistent basis during that time and it is also fitting that the two players who made a maximum break during the tournament should face off to decide the destiny of this year’s trophy.

The pairing of these two Essex players also ensures an end to quirky and unwanted record in this great tournament.

Before this year’s tournament began, there had been seven previous occasions that a 147 break had been posted at The Crucible. And on all seven occasions, the player that posted the maximum failed to go on and win the tournament. The presence of these two players in this year’s final ensures that this record cannot continue any longer.

O’ Sullivan was responsible for compiling two of those maximum breaks in a losing cause, so he will be hoping it is a case of third time lucky for him this time around. He is also bidding to win the World Championship for a third time, and should he do so, he will ensure that his place among the great achievers of the green baize lasts long after he retires.

In the past, O’ Sullivan’s fragility of mind has stopped him dominating the game as much as his remarkable talent suggested he should be able to. But now, O’ Sullivan is older and wiser and it appears his hunger to dominate the sport in the way that Stephen Hendry did in the 1990s and Steve Davis did in the 1980s is greater than it ever has been. A focused and determined O’ Sullivan is bad news for every other player in the field.

Ali Carter will be delighted to have made it through to his first ranking tournament final. At the start of the tournament, the 28 year old from Essex was a 66-1 outsider. That seemed a fair price given that he had only previously made it to the semi finals twice in a ranking tournament, and on neither occasion making it to the final. People that follow snooker throughout the course of the season, however, have realised for some time that Carter had potential. What they were not so sure of was of Carter’s temperament and belief in the business end of the tournament.

Carter made it to the last eight here a year ago following a sensational second round demolition of seven times champion Stephen Hendry, who is never an easy opponent to knock over at this venue. That could have been a catalyst for Carter to go on and challenge in the latter stages of the tournament, but he ultimately fell short in the deciding frame against Mark Selby in the quarter finals.

Given Selby’s level of performance at The Crucible twelve months ago and over the course of this season, there was no disgrace in that defeat, but nonetheless there have been many who have doubted Carter’s ability to push on to the next level. The past fortnight in Sheffield possibly gives him that platform to finally achieve this. Victories over previous champions Shaun Murphy and Peter Ebdon have stood out in Carter’s run to the final. But his first round victory against Barry Hawkins was the most significant.

Carter had lost 9-8 to Hawkins in the UK Championship having led 8-3 and it looked like lightning was going to strike twice as Hawkins came from 6-3 and 9-6 behind to level at 9-9 and take the match into a decider. Had play not been hauled off before the deciding frame was played, it is quite possible that Carter’s run to the final and his memorable 147 would never have happened but Carter dug deep to get through that match and the rest is history.

I have been impressed with Carter’s resilience when his back has been against the wall during the tournament. After a poor third session in his semi final against Joe Perry where he never found any fluency in his game, weaker players would have cracked having seen a 9-7 lead turn into a 13-11 deficit heading into the final session, especially against a strong front runner like Perry. But Carter clearly is made of stronger stuff and came back in the evening session in determined mood, losing just two of the evening’s eight frames.

O’ Sullivan and Carter have played eight times before in competitive play and have also practised together previously. They should be very familiar with each other’s game and in some ways, this will help Carter as it will reduce the fear factor of playing such a great player. What will give Carter greater concern, however, is his previous head-to-head record against the Rocket. In eight previous matches, O’ Sullivan has won every single time.

Some of the matches between the two have been close and Carter has rarely given O’ Sullivan an easy match in their previous showdowns. Their last two matches have been notable for O’ Sullivan’s level of performance in winning. A 5-3 victory for O’ Sullivan in the quarter finals of this season’s Welsh Open featured yet another 147 from the king of the maximums, while in the Northern Ireland Trophy back in November, O’ Sullivan’s 5-2 victory featured a century break in each of the five frames he won. This suggests O’ Sullivan respects the threat that Carter poses given how his performances have tended to be of a high standard.

The way in which O’ Sullivan demolished Stephen Hendry in the semi final suggests that Carter is on a hiding to nothing in this match. Put simply, O’ Sullivan’s performance against Hendry was one of the best ever seen at The Crucible. Hendry did not play particularly badly but O’ Sullivan just did not allow Hendry to establish any rhythm from the second session onwards because he spent most of the time in his seat. The turning point was O’ Sullivan winning the last three frames of the first session to get back to 4-4, after Hendry had led 4-1. O’ Sullivan would probably not have found such a level of fluency if he had trailed going into the second session.

While O’ Sullivan’s break building in that match and throughout the tournament has been noticeable, the high quality of his safety play should be mentioned too, as Hendry pointed out after his semi final hammering. This aspect of O’ Sullivan’s game has improved beyond recognition in recent seasons and it is one of the fundamental reasons why O’ Sullivan is far more consistent in tournament play these days.

From Ali Carter’s point of view, he can come into the final with no real pressure on him. Like Mark Selby last year, nobody really expects him to win given O’ Sullivan’s excellent showing in the last four and also given his dire head-to-head record against the world number one in waiting. He also knows that whatever happens in the final, he will start next season as the world number seven, his highest ever ranking. Carter’s approach to the match should be an uncomplicated one, simply go out and enjoy the occasion and play the match as though it is his only opportunity to win the world crown.

There is nothing Carter can do to prevent the O’ Sullivan juggernaut charging along if he is in the right frame of mind. Carter likes to play the game positively and although his safety game is good, he is by no means a grinder or container and so he is unlikely to be able to disturb O’ Sullivan’s rhythm in the way that someone like Mark Selby or Peter Ebdon have been able to in the past. But in a best of 35 frame match, there will be a period during the match where O’ Sullivan has a lull. It is important that when this happens, Carter fully capitalises on any gifts that O’ Sullivan hands out. They will be few and far between.

If Carter is able to, he really needs to end the first session level, or at worst, 5-3 behind. Any worse than that and Carter is going to be faced with a real uphill struggle to claw his way back. Carter is unquestionably a fine player who looks like he is finally on the cusp of fulfilling his potential and his run to the final could provide him with a platform to win a ranking event in the near future. But it was interesting to hear Carter say after making his 147 that he felt if he ever got in a position where he could make a maximum that he thought he would fail in his attempt.

That suggests to me that Carter lacks a little bit of confidence that the really great players need to succeed and against a champion of O’ Sullivan’s standing, that makes him vulnerable prey. If O’ Sullivan gets among the balls and establishes a rhythm then I would worry about the affect this will have on Carter’s ability to win frames in one visit. In the third session of his semi final, it was noticeable how his long potting fell to pieces as Joe Perry got into the groove.

For Ronnie O’ Sullivan, ever since the draw was made this year, it was apparent that he would have a fantastic opportunity to win the World Championship for a third time and in doing so, put himself in amongst the all time greats. He has grown in confidence and stature with each round and surely only a major meltdown will prevent him from seizing this opportunity.

Should he succeed, then I feel his increased desire for the game could take him on a ruthless pursuit of Hendry’s seven world crowns and he could finally dominate the game in the way that many observers felt that with his unique talent, he should have done some time ago.

Carter will not make life easy for O’ Sullivan but his opponent is simply in another stratosphere to everyone else in the field on current form. Prediction: O’ Sullivan 18-8 Carte.




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