UFC 100 takes place Saturday from Las Vegas(credit:
piccadillywilson)
Fitch favourite to beat Brazilian fighter Thiago this weekend in Las Vegas
Jon Fitch and Paulo Thiago at UFC 100 this weekend promises to be an interesting bout.
Thiago goes into the fight as the underdog, despite shocking the MMA world back in February at UFC 95 when he destroyed Josh Koscheck in London with an awesome first round knockout win.
His reward for some explosive punching on that occasion? A place on the main card at the UFC's landmark pay-per-view in Las Vegas and a bout against Jon Fitch.
Fitch, who is Koscheck's training partner, is the odds on favourite to win Saturday night's bout, best priced 1/4 with both bet365 and Paddy Power.
The 31-year-old has won nine of his 10 fights in the UFC, with his only defeat being when he lost to Welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre last summer at UFC 87.
Saturday will see St-Pierre defend his Welterweight belt against Thiago Alves, who Fitch already has a win over (back in 2006 at UFC Fight Night 5).
But while Alves is probably more capable now of beating 'GSP' than Fitch was at UFC 87, there's definitely an argument that Fitch is a better fighter than the Brazilian right now, however we should likely wait and see what Alves does on Saturday before answering that fully.
For Thiago to win on Saturday night, he needs to take the fight to ground. His standup game is no match for Fitch's and while Thiago is a decent wrestler, Fitch is the better of the two when it comes to grappling.
Some will argue that Thiago got lucky when he punched his way to victory over Koscheck earlier in the year. Even if that is the case, it likely won't be enough to put away Fitch in Las Vegas.
The Brazilian is available at a best priced 10/3 (Boylesports, Betfred) to win and if he fails to threaten with his submission game will likely struggle.
Fitch's ground skills aren't particularly bad, although they are not as accomplished as Thiago's. The American has only lost once via submission and that was way back in 2002 when he lost to Mike Pyle.
We think Fitch edges it when it comes to standup and definitely is the strong of the two when it comes to wrestling.
At 1/4 he may not seem like great value, but Fitch has a good record and against a fighter who is less well-rounded, that price could end up being great value come Saturday night.
Jon Fitch v Paulo Thiago betting
Best odds available, prices correct at time of writing
Jon Fitch - 1/4 (bet365, Blue Square, Paddy Power)
Paulo Thiago - 10/3 (Betfred, Boylesports)
Draw - 25/1 (Blue Square)