Your betting guide to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle where Dan Breen is a value bet against Dunguib with Paddy Power
The opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.30) over 2m1/2f features many people's banker of the meeting in the shape of Dunguib, who was so impressive when winning the Champion Bumper 12 months ago.
The Favourite
Dunguib (best price 2.0 Betfair at time of writing) has looked a machine in winning all four of his hurdle starts without coming off the bridle and we know he acts on the track, so he fully deserves to be a short-priced favourite. Take out the eight flights of hurdles he will have to jump, and he'd be a near certainty as his hurdling has left something to be desired at times and was positively sloppy last time out at Leopardstown. A stronger pace ought to help him out in that department but it's still a concern and the stats geeks will point out that there has only been one winning seven-year-old in the past 10 runnings. Has there been many seven-year-olds like Dunguib, though?
The Dangers
Get Me Out Of Here took his unbeaten run to five when winning the Totesport Trophy last time and would be lining up here a short-priced favourite but for Dunguib. It's hard to imagine him finishing out of the frame, although he's no value now at 6/1 (Ladbrokes). Impressive Kempton winner Menorah (12/1 totesport) got mugged on the line in at Ascot last time but a stronger run race will play more to his strengths.
Blackstairmountain (12/1 Ladbrokes) was a classy sort on the flat and won his maiden hurdle with any amount in hand. He could be anything over hurdles and the drying ground is in his favour. The same can be said of dual bumper winner Dan Breen (20/1 Paddy Power), who showed plenty of speed when winning on his hurdling debut at Doncaster and the runner-up, Tanto Faz, has since boosted the form by bolting up at Stratford. Oscar Whisky (12/1 Boylesports) is two from two over hurdles but hasn't beaten much in the process.
Longshot
It's impossible to make a case for anything above 25/1 in the betting so don't even bother looking.
Key Stat
Twelve of the last 13 winners had won on their previous outing, which would rule out Menorah.
Verdict
This is Dunguib's race to lose and with a clear round of jumping and no bad luck in-running he will win. He's a very short price, though, and unless you are Harry Findlay the sensible thing to do is to back something each-way against him, or just enjoy the spectacle.
I'm on DAN BREEN ante post at 40/1 and, although he's half those odds now, I wouldn't put anyone off backing him each-way at 20/1 with Paddy Power, who will refund the win part of your bet should Dunguib win. In fact, if you are considering backing anything against the favourite, you'd be daft not to invest with the boys from Dublin.