Can get City get a result against favourites United in the Manchester derby on Sunday?(credit:
umbrofootball)
A look at the betting ahead of Sunday's Manchester derby where visitors City look better value than the hosts at Old Trafford
Best bet: Manchester United v Manchester City draw @ 4.3 with Betfair
One of the enduring joys of football is its ability to throw up unlikely match-winners. After weeks of theorising and hype before high-profile matches, usually surrounding one or two so-called potential match-winners, it's often a forgotten figure operating in the shadows that turns in the pivotal performance.
Amid the furore over Emmanuel Adebayor's 80-yard sprint, inflammatory celebratory slide and stud-graze across Robin van Persie's cheek last Saturday (when are fans going to take responsibility for their own actions rather than blaming players they happily abuse for 90 minutes?), it went almost unnoticed that the man that restored City's lead just as Arsenal were gaining the upper hand was Craig Bellamy. He used to dominate headlines, and is still a good footballer, which is one reason why we believe Manchester City are too big at 6.2 with Betfair to cause an upset at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon.
Bellamy is one of those City players overshadowed by the spending whirlwind of the summer, but he and other reliable performers, such as Stephen Ireland, Micah Richards and Wayne Bridge, will have crucial parts to play if City are to achieve their ambition of becoming a top-four side (they're 2.1 to do so). A win may be beyond the visitors this weekend, but those inflated odds on them coming away from Old Trafford with all three points spawn betting opportunities elsewhere, such as City to get a draw at 4.3.
The visitors are good enough to earn a point even without Adebayor. City have played as well as United this season, won their opening four games of the season and, in Shay Given and Nigel De Jong, have two players in the sort of magnificently obdurate form that will quell United's attacking ambitions. Don't forget, either, that United's attack has functioned smoothly in only two of their five league games so far - those 5-0 and 3-1 wins over Wigan and Tottenham respectively.
The historical stats also make City a decent bet to get something out of the game: they've picked up draws in four of their last eight trips to Stretford, which is the best record of a non-Big Four visiting side in that period. That's why we're willing to back the draw, although if you feel City might nick a win, lay United at 1.64. If you feel City are good enough to get a draw but may end up losing by the odd goal, back the visitors with a +1-goal start on the Asian handicap at 1.89.
Will this be a tight, tactical affair, or something resembling the open mayhem of City's win over Arsenal last week? We think the former, as City can afford to sit back and invite United to open them up, which the champions will patiently try to do over 90 minutes. United have scored far more freely after half-time than before-half time this season - eight goals after the break, as opposed to three before - so a small wager on a 0-0 half-time score at 2.98 or a lay of United to be ahead at half-time at 2.2 are worth considering.
Which leads us on to the Half-time/Full-time market, where Draw-Draw is a tempting selection at 7.0. We're wary of putting too many eggs in the same basket, but the logical extension of our argument regarding the half-time and full-time scores is that a small bet on the Draw-Draw outcome looks good value.
Our final, speculative selection is a small wager on Bellamy to be first goalscorer. We prefer anytime goalscorer bets - how are you supposed to know whether a player will score the first goal in the game, rather than strike at anytime? - but we're willing to have a small interest on the Welshman at 13.5. It would be typical of him to upstage the more expensively-recruited stars on show on enemy turf.