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And Celtic can play every Group winner bar Milan with the first leg at Parkhead.
For the punters out there be careful, there is a huge myth running around waiting to be shot down and can cost you money - the myth of playing the second leg at home being a huge advantage. It isn’t and is one of the great traps the bookies are looking to nail you on.
Porto, under Joes Mourinho in 2004 won the Champions League playing all of their knock out first legs at home. Getting a lead and defending it ferociously on the road, whilst using the counter attack to devastating effect.
Liverpool in 2005, won the Champions having played all bar one of their knockout ties at home in the first leg.
Last year Milan even drew 2-2 at home to Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals first leg and gave a master class of playing on the break to win 2-0 in Germany.
Teams like Celtic love playing at home first where they can rattle their opponents and go all out for a lead which they’ll have a chance of defending away.
The other myth is that team want the easiest possible path. Teams like Arsenal and Liverpool get themselves hyper motivated for games against the superpowers and finishing second with the chance to get at one of the giants might be exactly the sort of challenge they need.
Liverpool have been at their best in Europe under Benitez when against Juventus, Milan and Barcelona, while Arsenal’s trip to the final 2 years ago involved beating Real Madrid and (playing at home first) their best ever Champions League display when they wiped the floor with Juventus at Highbury.
So-called easy ties against the likes of PSV have been their downfall.
Arsenal will fancy testing their pace against Milan or Real, even if logic may say they’d rather play Porto. Their key is to avoid injuries and retain the mental strength that has brought them so many late goals and points, this season.
The 3-0 hiding they gave Sevilla on matchday 1 served as notice that they can beat absolutely anybody.
Liverpool like teams they can weave a defensive web around whilst strategically attacking at given times. The whirlwind opening 20 minutes against Juventus and Chelsea.
The battering of Barcelona in the Camp Nou, and given the increasing likelihood that come late February they’ll be out of the running for the Premier League all point to another powerful run for the Merseysiders.
For Manchester United and Chelsea, the outlook is simpler. Both will fancy wiping out whomever they get and will see themselves as definite last 4 candidates.
The trick for them is to score away, what they don’t want is to be chasing a 1-0 deficit against pacy counter attackers like Fenerbahce or Roma (only in Chelsea’s case).
Lyon is probably the most dangerous team that either could face, given that they are back in form, back on top of Ligue 1 and in Karim Benzani they have probably the most dangerous under-21 striker in Europe. The ideal pick for them is probably Olympiacos.
Celtic will bank on inspiration created by probably the noisiest crowd in Europe. Milan, Juventus, Manchester United and Bayern Munich are just 4 of the premier European teams to have tried and failed to win at Celtic Park.
Under Martin O’Neill they ran with narrow first leg wins on their way to the 2003 UEFA Cup final, and dug in on the road. A 1-0 win over anybody will be tough to turn over.
Outside of the British teams, looking at possible winners, logic says head to Spain or Italy.
Both Milan teams will be strong contenders, as will Real Madrid and Barcelona, but given a bit of luck with the draw, keep an eye out on Sevilla.
As a strike partnership, Frederic Kanoute and Luis Fabiano are a match for anyone and the pace and skill of Jesus Navas, Daniel Alves and company mean they can shred any defence. They can still be backed at 16/1 or better.
The draw takes place at 11am this morning and should throw up some quality match-ups.
Darryl Rowe
darryl.rowe@oddspreview.com